The Indian banking sector is projected to experience a steady 9-13 per cent industrial credit growth in the first half of 2026, driven by capital expenditure, infrastructure development, and sectoral demand recovery, according to a Ficci-IBA survey.
After a subdued first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26), banks are now betting big on the festive season, rolling out attractive loan offers to boost credit growth in the second half of the current financial year (H2FY26) - a trend likely to be further accentuated by the second-order effects of the good services tax (GST) cuts.
Banking sector has witnessed healthy growth in advances in the third quarter of financial year 2026 (Q3FY26) against the same period last year, as the full impact of goods and service tax (GST) rate cuts drove growth. Most of the lenders saw their credit growth outpace the deposit growth in the quarter.
The Bank Nifty is currently trading at a 43.5 per cent discount to the Nifty 50, near its widest gap since 2015, reflecting investor pessimism despite the banking sector's strong earnings growth.
HDFC Bank, India's largest private-sector lender, has revised its FY27 growth trajectory, stepping back from earlier guidance to align with a more measured 12 per cent year-on-year expansion, citing geopolitical uncertainties.
Indian bank credit expanded by 16.08 per cent year-on-year in FY26, marking its fastest pace since FY24, while deposits grew by 13.47 per cent, according to RBI data. Experts caution that year-end figures may be inflated due to reporting date changes, but acknowledge strong momentum in corporate, MSME, and retail segments.
India's private-sector banks are likely to lose market share for a second consecutive year in 2025-26, as their loan books continue to expand much slower than overall bank credit.
Credit card adoption is rapidly expanding beyond India's major metropolitan areas into Tier-II and Tier-III cities, driven by increasing incomes, digital awareness, and the integration of RuPay credit cards with UPI, according to a new report by SBI Card.
Credit card transactions in India have surged over 2.6 times between 2021 and 2025, driven by private sector banks, while debit card usage declines due to growing adoption of UPI and digital wallets, according to an RBI report.
Credit card transactions in India have surged over 2.6 times between 2021 and 2025, reaching 570 crore volumes and Rs 23.2 lakh crore in value, with private sector banks significantly increasing their market share, according to a recent RBI report.
Despite sharp interest rate cuts expected in this financial year amid easy liquidity conditions, state-run banks are treading cautiously on their loan growth projections for FY26. Most large banks are projecting loan growth at 11-13 per cent, almost similar to the previous financial year.
India's toll collection growth is projected to moderate to 5-7 per cent year-on-year in FY27, a 150-200 basis points reduction, primarily due to the economic impact of the West Asia conflict and a slowdown in commercial traffic, according to Crisil Ratings.
In 2025 banks are in for challenges such as pressure on margins and slowing credit growth. With the likelihood of a repo rate cut in February or April, external benchmark-linked loans of banks will be repriced immediately. However, deposit rates are expected to adjust more gradually, which could impact the net interest margin (NIM) - a key measure of profitability for banks.
Bank credit growth is expected to moderate this financial year after a robust 16 per cent estimated for last financial year, driven by strong economic activity and retail credit demand. There are three reasons for this: a statistical high-base effect given the strong growth seen last financial year, revision in risk weights by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and relatively slower economic activity.
Balance-level delinquencies in the credit card segment saw a 17 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y) rise in the quarter ending June 2024 (Q1FY25). In all other credit segments, including personal loans, delinquencies declined even as retail credit growth moderated, consequent to banks tightening the supply of credit to the unsecured segments, a report by TransUnion CIBIL said on Monday. Data shows that balance-level delinquencies, measured in terms of 90 days or more past due, in the credit card segment stood at 1.8 per cent in Q1FY25- highest among all other credit segments.
Six banks that reported their quarterly business updates for the October-December (Q3FY26) quarter on Friday recorded double-digit growth in their loan books compared with a year ago. Deposits also posted healthy growth during the period.
'We are staying away from making forward-looking statements on when we will reach 1 trillion, etc. But growth will be rapid; it's only a matter of time.'
IT services major LTM is set to introduce a new pricing framework, 'Blueverse Credit', in the first quarter of FY27, aiming to align monetisation with the growing adoption of agentic artificial intelligence.
Fitch Ratings has warned that India's oil marketing companies (OMCs) could face significant credit pressure if crude oil prices remain elevated, leading to eroded earnings and increased working capital needs due to delayed fuel price pass-through.
Public-sector banks (PSBs) in India have reported an 11.2 per cent year-on-year rise in net profit, reaching a record 1.98 trillion in FY26, marking their fourth consecutive year of profitability, driven by sustained business growth, improved asset quality, and strong capital positions.
Shares of state-owned bank stocks were under pressure on Monday due to muted deposit and credit growth numbers reported by these lenders in the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2024-25 (FY25). The Nifty PSU Bank index was down 4 per cent, with Union Bank of India emerging as the biggest loser as its shares fell 7.5 per cent to close at Rs 114.7, followed by a 5.7 per cent drop in shares of Bank of Baroda (BoB) to Rs 228 and a 4.7 per cent slide in shares of Bank of India to Rs 99.8 on the National Stock Exchange.
TransUnion Cibil CEO Bhavesh Jain highlights the improved retail portfolio quality in January but stresses the need for lenders to continuously engage with borrowers on credit usage and repayment, similar to the approach taken during the Covid-19 pandemic, as the impact of the Iran war on credit quality is still being assessed.
HDFC Bank reports a 12% credit growth for the March quarter, alongside the unexpected resignation of its chairman, Atanu Chakraborty, due to ethical concerns.
Loans against gold jewellery in India surged by an impressive 128 per cent year-on-year to nearly 4.28 trillion in February 2026, according to the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data, significantly outpacing overall retail loan growth.
ICICI Bank reported a 9.28 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit to Rs 14,755 crore for the March quarter of FY26, primarily driven by a nearly 90 per cent reduction in provisioning. The bank's executive director, Sandeep Batra, noted strong asset growth but expressed caution regarding the geopolitical situation in West Asia.
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economy to grow at 6.3 per cent even if crude oil prices average USD 130 per barrel in the current fiscal year, highlighting the nation's resilience amidst the West Asia crisis and strong commitment to fiscal consolidation.
Moody's Ratings has highlighted that Indian banks are among the most exposed in the Asia-Pacific region to the West Asia crisis, primarily due to India's high dependence on energy imports, which could lead to increased inflation, higher interest rates, and strained borrower cash flows.
Analysts have largely maintained a bullish outlook on HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank following their Q4FY26 results, though their perspectives on future growth drivers differ. HDFC Bank's near-term performance is tied to accelerating loan growth, while ICICI Bank is seen as a strong candidate for a valuation rerating.
Fitch Ratings on Friday said persistently higher oil prices could cause India's retail inflation to rise faster than the expected gradual pace, and lead to a slowdown in economic growth in the first half of financial year 2026-27 (FY27).
TVS Venu Group has agreed to acquire a minority stake of up to 9.9 per cent in Jana Small Finance Bank, including a 4.9 per cent ownership by TVS Motor Company, through a combination of primary issuance of warrants and a secondary purchase.
S&P Global Ratings warns that a sustained rise in crude oil prices to $130 per barrel could significantly slow India's economic growth, weaken fiscal metrics, and strain corporate and banking sector performance, potentially reducing growth by up to 80 basis points.
The banking regulator was uncomfortable with the runaway pace at which consumer credit was growing.
Brokerage firm Jefferies maintains a 'Buy' rating for Paytm, citing its dominant merchant payments platform and projected revenue growth.
The Indian banking sector could be due for a rise in profitability after several quarters of net interest margin (NIM) compression. The Q2FY26 results suggest NIMs have bottomed out.
Rapid growth in personal gold loans has raised concerns over borrower leverage, large-ticket exposure and volatility in gold prices, points out Swaminathan J, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India.
India's organised gold jewellery retail sector is projected to experience a 13-15 per cent year-on-year decline in sales volumes this fiscal, following an 8 per cent drop last year, due to elevated gold prices and a recent import duty hike, according to a Crisil report.
NPCI BHIM Services Ltd is expanding the BHIM app to feature phones to increase financial inclusion and diversify revenue through financial product distribution. The app aims to double its market share and is focusing on partnerships with banks and new features like UPI Circle.
Admitting that credit growth is "very low" given the size and growth rate of the economy, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday said for both the numbers to match, "the very very wide output gap" has to close. The central bank also clarified that low credit growth does not necessarily mean low credit flow to the economy, or choking of credit to the system, as bank credit growth numbers that the central bank publishes regularly represent only the outstanding credit in the system. Output gap means due to poor demand conditions, companies are unable run their plant at full installed capacity or, in a larger sense, an economy is not producing optimally as the demand is missing.
A government mandate requiring central public sector enterprises to use the Trade Receivables Discounting System (TReDS) for settling small business invoices is expected to significantly increase volumes on these platforms.
Reliance Industries Ltd reported a 12.5 per cent fall in its March quarter net profit, primarily impacted by the global energy crisis affecting its oil and chemicals business, while its consumer-facing Jio Platforms unit saw a 13 per cent increase in profit after tax.
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